Soybeans face a challenging weekend as recent export data hints at a slowdown in China’s purchasing activity, raising concerns among traders and industry analysts alike. But here's where it gets controversial—while prices fell notably on Friday, the underlying data tells a more nuanced story that could influence future market movements. Let's dive into the details and unravel what’s really happening.
On Friday, soybean futures experienced a decline, with contracts dropping between 17 and 22¼ cents for the nearby months. Despite this dip, the January futures managed to close the week with a modest gain of 7½ cents, partly because of the expiration of the November contract. As of the latest report, the national cash price for soybeans, according to cmdtyView, was down by 22¾ cents, settling at $10.50¼ per bushel.
The soymeal market also reflected some softness, with futures tumbling by $1.40 to reach $6, although December’s futures saw a weekly increase of $5.40. Meanwhile, soybean oil futures declined by 2 to 10 points across the board, yet the weekly change was slightly positive at 47 points higher.
Now, here's where the data gets interesting — the USDA recently released a backlog of large unreported daily export sales during the shutdown period, revealing a total of 1.348 million metric tons (MMT) sold. Of this, China purchased just 332,000 metric tons, while a significant 616,000 MT went to unknown destinations, potentially implying shipments to other countries or unreported buyers. Additionally, the Philippines bought 237,500 MT of soybean meal. However, it’s important to note that comprehensive weekly export numbers won't be fully updated until January 2, meaning current data might still be incomplete.
In terms of crop production, recent updates from this morning's reports indicated that the U.S. soybean yield has slightly declined from September estimates, now at 53 bushels per acre (bpa), which is half a bushel lower. This adjustment lowered total U.S. soybean production by 48 million bushels (mbu) to roughly 4.253 billion bushels (bbu).
Looking ahead, carryover stocks for the 2024/25 season have been reduced by 14 mbu from the previous estimate, now totaling 316 mbu as per the September Grain Stocks report. When combined with the slightly lower production figure, total supplies decreased by 61 mbu to about 2.59 billion bushels. On the demand side, exports fell by 50 mbu, which resulted in ending stocks being trimmed down by 10 mbu to 290 mbu.
On a global scale, Brazil has seen increased domestic use and exports, while Argentina's exports have surged to compensate for a decline in crushing activity. Despite these shifts, Brazil’s ending stocks are projected to drop by 2 million metric tons (MMT) to approximately 121.99 MMT, signaling strong international demand.
Looking at upcoming industry reports, the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data scheduled for Monday morning is highly anticipated. Analysts expect October soybean crush totals to average around 209.52 million bushels, with a wide range of estimates spanning from 197.4 to 223.5 million bushels. Soybean oil stocks are also expected to slightly increase, reaching around 1.257 billion pounds, which is above the 1.243 billion pounds recorded at the end of September.
Regarding recent market prices, soybeans for November settled at $11.12¾, down 19¼ cents from previous levels, while nearby cash prices declined by 22¾ cents to $10.50¼. Futures for January 2026 closed at $11.24½, down 22½ cents, and March 2026 also saw a decrease, ending at $11.36, down 20¾ cents.
And here's a question for our readers: with export data suggesting limited Chinese purchasing, do you think soybean prices will continue to slide, or could upcoming reports and global demand revive market optimism? Share your thoughts below—are we approaching a turning point or just facing routine market fluctuations?**
Note: On the day of publication, Austin Schroeder held no direct or indirect positions in any of the securities mentioned. All data and information provided are for informational purposes only. For further details, please review the Barchart Disclosure Policy provided in the link.
